FMCG & Consumer Goods Marketing 2026: How Nordic CMOs will turn value, health and retail media into growth
Download the full FMCG & Consumer Goods Marketing 2026 report
LOOKING AHEAD
A 2026 trend report for Nordic FMCG & Consumer Goods leaders
Nordic FMCG & Consumer Goods brands enter 2026 in a market where consumer caution, health shifts and channel disruption all hit at once.
Consumers are planning to be more intentional and “wiser” with their wallets – saving more, reducing impulse purchases and demanding clearer value. At the same time, healthspan (living healthier for longer) is becoming a primary goal, with many expecting to be healthier in five years than they are today.
Private label continues to expand in Europe and the US, with store brands now close to 40% of grocery value in many European markets and growing faster than national brands. GLP‑1 weight‑loss drugs are reducing calorie intake and reshaping spend in snacks, bakery and sugary drinks, while opening opportunities in high‑protein, “lighter” and functional food.
In parallel, retail media networks and AI‑mediated discovery are changing how shoppers find products and how brands buy attention. Retail media ad spend is set to more than double from 2023 to 2027, with Food & Beverages already among the largest impression‑gaining categories.
Boards and retailers are tougher: they want proof of category growth and ROI, not just volume or GRPs. Nepa’s MMM work across grocery and retail shows how shifts in media mix can quickly hurt both sales and brand KPIs when long‑term brand drivers are under‑funded.
2026 is therefore a year where value, health and evidence have to be managed together.
👉 Below is a condensed version of our full report FMCG & Consumer Goods Marketing 2026: How Nordic CMOs will turn value, health and retail media into growth
Download the full 2026 FMCG & Consumer Goods Marketing Trends Report. Fill out the form and get access instantly.
A 2026 trend report for Nordic FMCG & Consumer Goods leaders
Below is the executive summery – fill out the form above to get access to our full report.
#1. Changing consumer expectations & health behaviour
Nordic shoppers are more cautious, but also more demanding:
“Smart value”, not just cheap
As living‑cost pressure persists, people are trading up and down simultaneously rather than simply buying the lowest price. A sizeable share of European grocery shoppers traded up in 2024 while a similar share traded down, resulting in almost no net trading effect – but a clear shift towards private label and “worth‑it” propositions.
What it means:
Brands must justify their role vs. private label with distinctive functional and emotional benefits – not just promotions.
Healthier, lighter and more functional choices
GLP‑1 adoption is accelerating: one major study shows GLP‑1 households reduce grocery spend by around 6% within six months, with the largest cuts in savoury snacks, sweet bakery, biscuits and other calorie‑dense categories. At the same time, GLP‑1 users and health‑focused consumers are shifting towards high‑protein, high‑fibre, nutrient‑dense foods and smaller portions, with brands launching “GLP‑1‑friendly” or weight‑management lines.
What it means:
Categories built on “treat” and “bulk” face structural pressure, while functional, portion‑controlled and protein‑rich propositions have room to grow.
Trusted, cleaner and more sustainable products – at a fair premium
Consumers still prioritise environmental and ethical credentials, but expect tangible proof and realistic pricing rather than vague claims. “Eco logical” behaviour is increasingly about practical benefits and evidence, not abstract values alone.
Nepa angle
Nepa’s category and shopper work shows that winning FMCG brands define clear category roles and Category Entry Points (“weekday dinner”, “kids’ sports snack”, “on‑the‑go energy”) and then align innovation, packaging and messaging with the small set of drivers that matter most in that category.
#2. Tech & channels: retail media, AI & fragmented discovery
Retail media is now a primary FMCG channel
Retail media ad spend is projected to grow from about $114B in 2023 to almost $234B by 2027 globally, taking a rising share of digital advertising. Retail media impressions grew strongly year‑on‑year in early 2025, with Food & Beverages among the top impression‑earning categories.
What it means:
Retail media is no longer just “shopper activation”. For FMCG, it is now one of the core brand and demand drivers.
AI‑mediated and LLM‑based discovery reshape search and media
The Marketing Science Institute highlights LLM‑based search and AI‑generated advertising as key 2026 themes, with AI increasingly influencing how people discover products and how brands design, target and measure campaigns.
Nepa angle
In shopper‑journey and MMM work with beverage and food clients, Nepa consistently sees that media and in‑store activity must be evaluated together. Shopper studies that map the full journey – from decision to in‑store behaviour, and from considered to impulse purchases – reveal which touchpoints (retail media, displays, shelf placement, promotions) truly drive brand and store choice.
#3. From campaigns → missions, occasions & context
Mission‑based planning replaces pure calendar planning
European grocery analyses show private‑label share approaching 40%, with consumers planning to continue buying store brands even as purchasing power recovers. This raises the bar for brands: they must own specific missions and occasions (for example “healthy weekday lunch for kids”, “GLP‑1‑friendly mid‑afternoon snack”, “Friday night at‑home treat”) and activate them across social, retail media and in‑store, rather than relying on generic seasonal bursts.
Context, timing and shelf execution drive ROI
Nepa’s MMM cases show that when retailers or brands cut broad‑reach, brand‑building channels and over‑shift to digital and in‑store, they may see short‑term savings but real drops in both sales and brand KPIs.
Nepa angle
The most effective clients use Paths to Purchase and shopper‑journey work to understand how CEPs translate into concrete steps, then build modular creative systems that can be adapted by mission, retailer and channel – with MMM quantifying which combinations deliver the best incremental return.
#4. Measurement, profitability & category growth
Cautious demand and commodity volatility squeeze margins
“Wiser wallets” and intentional consumption are now structural trends, not just a post‑inflation blip. Combined with volatile input costs (cocoa, coffee, grains, proteins), this forces FMCG players to treat pricing, pack architecture, innovation and promotion as one integrated profitability system.
MMM and incrementality become central for FMCG
Research priorities emphasise new methods for treatment‑effect prediction in marketing and synthetic data for experiments, reflecting the need to measure impact robustly without relying solely on cookies or always‑on A/B tests.
Nepa angle
Across multiple sectors, Nepa’s MMM shows huge differences in short‑term ROI between categories (for example gambling and telecoms vs soft drinks and cleaning products), and between media strategies within categories – underlining the importance of balancing short‑term activation with long‑term brand drivers.
#5. Organisational shifts in FMCG & Consumer Goods
Connected commerce teams instead of channel silos
To manage missions across stores, e‑commerce, quick commerce, social and retail media, leading FMCG players are moving towards cross‑functional teams that combine brand, shopper, e‑com, data and key‑account functions, often organised around major customers or occasions rather than channels.
AI‑enabled insight and content operations
AI and the future of marketing analytics, AI‑generated advertising and synthetic data are core 2026 themes, reflecting how brands will increasingly rely on AI to generate, test and refine both creative and insight.
Nepa angle
Nepa’s Trinity Suite cases (for example fashion retail, Kellogg) show that when Brand Tracking, Campaign Evaluation and MMM are tied into regular decision cadences – annual, quarterly, monthly – brands improve both media efficiency and long‑term brand health, even under strong pressure to cut.
What Nordic FMCG CMOs should do next
Re‑map segments, missions and health shifts
Use updated consumer and shopper data (including GLP‑1 impacts) to prioritise who you serve, for which occasions and through which retailers and channels.
Make retail media and retailer data part of your core strategy
Integrate retail media into both brand and shopper planning, and build joint business plans with retailers around category growth, not just share of shelf.
Institutionalise the measurement “trinity”
Treat Brand Tracking + Campaign Evaluation + MMM as non‑negotiable inputs to budgeting, retail negotiations and innovation – not as side projects.
Invest in AI with clear guardrails
Use AI for scenario modelling, creative versioning, retail‑media optimisation and insight synthesis – with human teams owning problem‑framing, ethics and retailer relationships.
In summary, 2026 will reward Nordic FMCG and Consumer Goods brands that can hold three ideas at once: consumers’ demand for smarter value, a structural shift towards healthier and more functional choices, and a tougher requirement for evidence of impact. Those who connect missions, measurement and organisational design – and treat retail media, AI and GLP‑1‑driven change as core strategic levers rather than side topics – will be best placed to drive sustainable category growth and defend brand equity in the years ahead.
If you want to benchmark your current set‑up, refine your 2026 plan or explore how CEPs, tracking and MMM can work together for your categories, Nepa can help.
LOOKING AHEAD
A 2026 trend report for Nordic FMCG & Consumer Goods leaders
2026 is a year where value, health and evidence have to be managed together.
👉 Download the full 2026 FMCG & Consumer Goods Marketing Trends Report. Fill out the form and get access instantly.
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